What We Mean When We Say Democrats Need To Meet Voters Where They Are For 2024
2024 is Currently a Coin-Flip. But Democrats Have a Chance to Decisively Turn the Tides from Republicans, If They Play Their Cards Right (Data credits to CNN Exit Polls & Statistical Atlas)
Feel free to check the entire blog archives from “Political Pulse” & “Salzillo Report” on the 2024 primary cycle, rural outreach, base dynamics, campaign organization, the current media landscape, the issues at stake, America’s political history, and much more.
There will also be a primary recap by the end of the weekend regarding the latest key contests in Maryland, Indiana, and West Virginia, along with some other campaign news by that point.
But for a moment, let us put a marker on where things current stand for the 2024 general election. The race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is deadlocked. Control of the House of Representatives is effectively a tossup, with Democrats as the slight favorite for the time being. The Senate map is very favorable for Republicans, but Democrat Senate candidates have been surprisingly resilient despite that, for now.
However, the Democratic Party has much work for to do. First, they have to confront the reemergence of voter suppression laws (most prominently in Georgia and North Carolina) by the Republican Party and the government bodies they control ahead of the presidential election. Two, they have to confront the potential obstacles in the way with Louis DeJoy as the head of the US Postal Service. Once again, voters will have to prepare for delays in services to get their ballots in time to polling places. Third, will poll workers be intimidated by Trump’s election denying crowd? A round of litigation battles are already underway by the RNC. Misinformation and disinformation efforts, whether domestically or by foreign nations like Russia and China, are ramping up too.
The other part is with the Democrats themselves. There are disadvantages for the party on messaging, especially on top issues like the economy, public safety, and immigration. All that is driving Trump’s campaign pitches, in spite of some of the positive indicators that can be touted today. There is a ground game presence discussed behind why African Americans voters are sour or unenthused of President Biden, while Hispanic & Latino voters are moving slowly towards Trump. The base is softening, while swing voters who can expand the 2020 Biden-Harris coalition are drifting away needlessly when they can be pulled back into the tent. Trump is running the show, even as both the RNC and DNC alike lack a rigorous boots-on-the-ground operation. It is even a hard time to fully address the Israel-Gaza conflict (do consider reading my previous post).
So is all hope lost, as some commentators like Fareed Zakaria have recently hinted at? I just do not think so, and nor does Simon Rosenberg, who predicted a better-than-predicted showing for Democrats in the 2022 midterms. In fact, like him, I am very tempted to think a surprise could be in store for 2024.
Still, to win in 2024—and, if possible, to win big in 2024—Democrats will need to work on the following:
On Messaging:
Democrats have to make the distinction with Republicans very clear, both on their own successes since 2020 and by relating to the real pain of voters stemming from 40 years of failed conservative doctrine. Do Americans want to see a continuation and expansion of the Build Back Better Agenda and the results of the Biden Presidency across the board? Or do they want to go back to the time when Trump was President, with an even more authoritarian agenda in place with Project 2025?
(By the way, who got us out of the COVID pandemic? Not the Trump bleach injections).
Do the voters want to see a transformation of governing principles, away from the 40 year status quo of failed trickle-down economics and culture war extremism which accelerated the decline of Middle America and a widening of the gap between the 1% and the 99% in both economic booms and recessions? Which further led to the partisan polarization of our country that culminated in election denialism and January 6?
Can Democrats make the significant contrasts clear on kitchen table issues like healthcare, education, the economy, jobs, the climate crisis, energy policy, consumer protection, workers’ rights, small business assistance, corporate antitrust, the social safety net, industrial policy, agricultural policy, fair trade, affordable housing, infrastructure & transportation, veterans services, the opioid crisis, judicial ethics, and campaign finance reform?
Can they go after Republicans not just for the crackdown on reproductive rights and the proliferation of the gun violence epidemic nationally, but also for the progress they threaten on IVFs, marriage equality, voting rights laws, civil rights protections, college admissions, drug policy, criminal justice reform, and key Biden Administration initiatives (like supporting minority-owned small businesses, taking on student loan lenders, and capping junk credit card fees)?
Can Democrats fully refute the conservative-neoliberal order built by Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton that eroded the standing of the working and middle classes over 4 short decades? Can they refute the governing consensus of 40 years that paved the way for the offshoring of manufacturing, the consolidation of agriculture, and the widening of the American wealth gap by income and race? That worsened the corporate price-gouging and supply chain bottlenecks that fuels inflation today, that produced the failed War on Drugs and War on Crime, and that made our immigration system today so dysfunctional? Can they proclaim an open rejection of this order to the Republicans looking to preserve this economic status quo in every way possible, and who do so even through obstructing the legislative process overall?
Then, can Democrats make clear that the US should emulate the values we have embodied on the global stage for decades, instead of ceding that over to Russia, China, North Korea, and Hungary of all places?
Because that is the real choice at stake between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
On Presence:
Democrats have to address a presence problem across the board—both in the places they need to win, and even those they don’t have to. Given the dangers that Trumpism poses in this country, Democrats should focus on winning anything that could be up for grabs in 2024.
There are many long-term solutions Democrats need to consider for this cycle as well—like the 50-State Strategy, a permanent DNC Rural Desk, a Redistricting & Election Litigation Center, a “Republicans for Biden” campaign arm, a partnership with grassroots organizations and community associations to rally the party base, a better targeting of more down-ballot races (including state legislatures), and a greater emphasis on more on-the-ground campaigning by volunteers. All of that remains true now and down the road.
Rural America composes 20%-40% of the general election electorate in crucial Midwestern battleground states. They are 10%-25% of the general election electorate in top Southern and Southwestern bellwether states. Not an electorate worth ignoring in 2024, especially for control of the Senate, the House, and even the balance of power in the many state legislatures.
A significant share of blue-collar, white working class voters and white-collar suburban women encompass a round of states including New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Thus, no surprise that they share the greatest number of Obama-Trump voters from 2016 and 2020, and therefore the most 2012-2016 pivot counties on the national electoral map (including 31 counties in Iowa alone). Very important for rebuilding the progressive farm-labor coalition at the grassroots level. Also can’t forget the diverse urban racial and ethnic electorates in the region as well.
African Americans and Hispanics & Latinos are significant segments of the national electorate. In states like Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, Latinos comprise 30%-50% of the state population. In states like Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas, Blacks comprise 15%-35% of the state population. Since racial politics is so polarized in the Southern half of the country, sky-high turnout in these communities is so crucial for Democrats to even have a chance in a region otherwise dominated by Republicans. Also a big reason to challenge Southern redistricting maps more aggressively all across the South.
Small, but growing electorates like Asian Americans, Native Americans, Pacific Islanders, the LGBTQ community, and the disabled cannot be ignored either. Nor should the traditionally loyal organized labor camp, young voters, and women.
Would anyone want to see a repeat of 2016? I hope not. But it will take a lot of work to support state parties, local partners, community organizations, grassroots movements, national operations, and the rest. President Biden should be worried about the need for engagement where enthusiasm is lacking in places like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Milwaukee, Madison, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston, Dallas, Charlotte, Raleigh, and Atlanta. More campaign engagement is needed.
Presence matters, sometimes more than messaging. Small town voters in Southwestern Pennsylvania were touched by the unprecedented appearance of a presidential candidate. Of all people, that was Donald Trump. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton skipped visiting any places in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. She ignored the infamous warnings of local party chairs concerned about base erosion in places such as Youngstown, Scranton, Gary, Flint, St. Joseph, Rock Island, Dubuque, Oshkosh, and Duluth.
Democrats have a lot of work to do. But should they learn from their past mistakes of 2016, 2020, and 2022, they will be in a better place against Republicans. And with time, they can definitively define the course of the 2024 elections going into November.