Rosenberg is Right: Get to 55
The Veteran Strategist (Rightly) Telling Democrats to Go Big for 2024.
Feel free to check the entire blog archives from “Political Pulse” & “Salzillo Report” on the 2024 primary cycle, rural outreach, base dynamics, campaign organization, the current media landscape, the issues at stake, and much more.
I can’t begin this post without applauding 60 Minutes correspondent Jon Wertheim’s fantastic segment on a private equity firm manager most of you probably have never heard of: KKR’s Peter Stavros. Stavros is a trailblazer in private equity with his innovative plan to build a “social contract” between his company and the communities he invests in—mainly through employee ownership.
The Wertheim segment studied the effects of this by, among other things, guiding the viewer through an Amish community in Illinois revitalized with the help of KKR’s model. Otherwise, Wertheim covered the other operations KKR has done and what the results have been. A classic job of covering all the issues and viewpoints, as Wertheim usually does. Kudos to a well-done segment, which I highly encourage readers to watch for themselves.
Also, need to give a real great big shout out to former Oregon Congressman Les AuCoin (he served in Congress from 1975-1993) for recommending my blog to several of his followers. Glad to hear you really appreciate the content here, Congressman. To return the favor though, I encourage my subscribers to check out Les’s Notes, also on this platform (you may want to start with his most recent article).
Finally, watch US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo dodge questions on the Washington Bridge and the Israel-Gaza situation. Not much surprise here, unfortunately. She has made a career of dodging Rhode Island local reporters at any rate—despite being a “national rising star.”
Moving on…
If you are a Democrat, and you have not heard of Simon Rosenberg by now, rest assured that you will be hearing more about him soon.
I do not necessarily agree with him on everything, but he has offered an intriguing perspective and insight into the dynamics of the recent election cycles. For instance, he was one of the few pundits who predicted the 2022 midterms would be a wash, or “red trickle,” rather than a red wave for Republicans.
He predicts another good election cycle in 2024 for Democrats—at least with a decisive presidential rematch that gives Joe Biden a 2nd term in the White House. We shall see for sure whether those words ring true when the November results come in. For my part, I am cautiously optimistic and hopeful.
Rosenberg is also making a great case for Democrats as to how to build a true governing majority, as Republicans were able to do in many regards since the 1980s. Here are a few facts that will help give a sense of the scope of the problem: more Republicans have been elected to the White House than Democrats since 1980. Similarly, Republicans have controlled much of Congress in the years since 1994, often by large majorities in both the House of Representatives and in the U.S. Senate. And even now, Republicans still hold more governorships in the country than Democrats, and hold a convincing edge, even today, in the state legislatures going back to the inception of the Tea Party in 2010.
Then, there is the Electoral College map, which once was considered so favorable to Democrats (i.e., before Hillary Clinton) that many talked about the demise of the Republican Party as we know it. Again, this was before Hillary Clinton. Times have changed, and even the popular vote margin is largely dependent on the size of the California electorate.
So, what does it all say? It says Democrats should go big, and not cede territory to Republicans when they do not have to.
Learn from Republicans. They went big in South Texas, and it worked. They went big in South Florida, and it worked. In fact, South Florida has become a center now for Spanish-language conservative media. What if Democrats tried doing that more? I mean, look at Georgia. Look at these other states where going big could change the electoral prospects of Republicans for decades to come.
That is the case Mr. Rosenberg is making. He is right. Is it easier to govern with a 3-seat majority, or with a 35-seat majority in the House of Representatives? Is it easier to govern in the US Senate in a virtual tie, or with 5 or so votes to spare? It doesn’t have to be these exact numbers, but you get the point.
This is not impossible: Trump 2024 is an unappetizing incarnation of the same stale bread messaging of Trump 2020. It is actually worse, given what we know about Trump’s love for a good insurrection and President Biden’s record of progressive wins. What is the loss in taking the message beyond the 2020 Biden-Harris coalition starting point? Why not take the first steps now—for the sake of democracy itself—to build the Build Back Better Agenda into the “Real Deal”? And why not take that ambitious plan all across this country and put it up directly to MAGA’s Project 2025?
Build up the state parties via the 50-State Strategy. Fight partisan & racial gerrymandering across the country (Operation BLUEMAP). Establish a permanent campaign outreach & messaging desk for Rural America. Partner with community advocates and organizations to reach base constituencies. Establish a Republicans for Biden campaign arm. Contest races all the way down to state legislatures, school boards, municipal offices, and more. These are just a few of the many ways Democrats can build up governing coalitions across the country. If Republicans can do it, the Democrats can as well.
It is no wonder that Howard Dean’s innovative tenure as DNC Chairman continues to inspire progressive organizers and party reformers to call on the current leadership to do more to promote the values the party of FDR has come to embrace. The time is now. The decisive results from 2006 and 2008 speak for themselves.
Please read this wonderful take from Mr. Simon Rosenberg on his advice to the Biden Campaign and the DNC:
