Tuning Back Into the 2024 Primaries
Past Results, Upcoming Contests, and Last Minute Litigation
Feel free to check the entire blog archives from “Political Pulse” & “Salzillo Report” on the 2024 primary cycle, rural outreach, base dynamics, campaign organization, the current media landscape, the issues at stake, and much more.
Let’s get straight to it:
The recent 2024 primary contests have provided plenty of political news to cover. First, we go to Maryland, which easily has the most contentious Democratic primary in the entire primary cycle for U.S. Senate.
The stakes could not be any higher. Congressman David Trone has poured a record $57 million of his own personal and business money to buy a Senate seat in the state. Despite that, Prince George’s County Angela Alsobrooks has quickly closed the gap, making the bitter contest a neck-and-neck horse race down to the wire for the May 14 primary.
County Executive Alsobrooks would make history as the first female African American US Senator from Maryland (much like Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester in Delaware). But like many candidates in recent years, Alsobrooks is not campaigning for office solely on her identity—in fact, like many of the candidates I have worked for, she rarely mentions it. She is running on a message of relatability to working class voters, being able to deliver crucial county services for her constituents in Maryland, rein in violent crime and domestic violence as an attorney, and champion voting rights and reproductive justice if elected to the Senate. As County Executive, she cites accomplishments like establishing cancer research centers and opioid addiction & mental health clinics, increasing public education funding, implementing juvenile justice reforms, investing in transportation and affordable housing, and navigating the logistical hurdles of the coronavirus pandemic.
Her grassroots campaign, relying primarily on small-donor donations to counter Trone’s massive self-funding advantage, has earned widespread support across the state, including Governor Wes Moore, Lt. Governor Aruna Miller, Senator Chris Van Hollen, and Congressman Jamie Raskin.
Congressman Trone has tried to tout his progressive accomplishments (even though he never formally joined the Congressional Progressive Caucus in his 5+ years in the House). Although he does have real noteworthy achievements, like recidivism advocacy and opioid treatment legislation, he also has a load of baggage that includes his fundraising tactics, his business practices at Total Wine, his past GOP donations, a controversial legal spat, and the prominent racial gaffe (in a majority-minority state).
In fact, news broke this week of a recent Trone ad that had to be pulled for another gaffe described as racially offensive, “disparaging,” insulting, and condescending. Trone could really test the strength of African American support in a way that surpasses even the weight of the Ben Cardin-Michael Steele contest back in 2006, should he become the nominee on May 14.
Along with the historical track record of self-funders from 2022 (and Trone’s own loss back in 2016), money is no guarantee in this race. If Trone is nominated to run against popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan, who is still popular with African American voters, Maryland’s seat could very well be in jeopardy to flip red in November. The choice for Democrats in Maryland could not be any starker for control of the Senate.
Why is why voters in Maryland deserve a compelling high-quality matchup for November in the form of County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who I also endorse for US Senate.
Keep an eye on the Baltimore area, Montgomery County, and Prince George’s County, which forms the bulk of Maryland’s very urban population—and thus, the Democratic primary electorate. African Americans and Hispanics & Latinos are also key, collectively forming almost half of the state’s population.
Three House seats in Maryland are up for grabs too. Johnny Olszewski appears to be the progressive frontrunner in MD-02, which is being vacated by Democratic incumbent Dutch Ruppersberger. MD-03 (Rep. John Sarbanes’s seat) is wide open, with former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn among the most prominent candidates in the race so far. And MD-06 is up in the air for both party primaries—and is the most likely Maryland House seat to be in play for Republicans in November.
Oregon has two competitive primaries for House seats. In Portland-based OR-03, held by Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Multonomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal appears to be the favorite in what is a very open multi-candidate field. She would provide a much-needed morale boost for the progressive movement across the country.
In OR-05, Democrats are looking to nominate their candidate to take on freshman Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. More specifically, State Senator Janelle Bynum is facing off with 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod Skinner in what is shaping to be another close primary race this month. In a district that Biden won by 8 points in 2020, whoever wins the nomination would be an early favorite to potentially flip this crucial House seat. Still, it will remain competitive at any rate.
For Oregon progressives, a win in November would be a great achievement in the years-long effort to gain a foothold within this Central Oregon seat after unseating Blue Dog Democrat Kurt Schrader in 2022. Schrader was so conservative that he was a vociferous opponent of the Build Back Better Agenda during Biden’s first two years in office.
Louisiana offered a surprise in its House map, when “totally impartial” Trump-appointed judges struck down a map that categorized another black-majority district as a racial gerrymander. As if Southern Republicans have been deprived of representation. Keep in mind that Louisiana’s current map has just one black-majority district—all despite African Americans constituting about a third of the state’s population.
Only in the world of the Federalist Society does it make sense to criticize racial gerrymandering against white voters, while defending racial gerrymandering against African Americans. This is not judging a case on the merits. This is political calculations meant to boost conservative lawmakers. I repeat, how is Louisiana’s map possibly fair when only one of its 7 House seats is majority black in a state that is 33% African American? Alabama’s map had similar problems, and was rightfully ruled unconstitutional in 2023 as a result.
The larger question is, like in South Carolina, whether the US Supreme Court will even rule on the case. They may decide to delay it knowing the reality, but needing any ploy to protect Congressional Republicans and Donald Trump. Delaying court rulings has become the new form of judicial activism for the far-right kangaroo courts.
In Texas, Congressman Henry Cuellar has been indicted in an Azerbaijan foreign bribes investigation. If Democrats truly feel the urgency of the 2024 elections, they would try forcing Congressman Cuellar to immediately withdraw from the November ballot (and replace him with a nominee like Jessica Cisneros). How does an indicted Democrat do at the ballot? Well, for former Rep. William Jefferson of Louisiana, he lost his 2008 reelection bid in a district Obama won by 25+ points.
Pennsylvania has selected Democratic Senator Bob Casey and GOP nominee Dave McCormick to be on the November ballot, formally setting up another marquee matchup in the Rust Belt. Hardly breaking news at all. Along with Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno in Ohio, this will likely be another hotly contested race that will determine control of the Senate in November (with several House seats up for grabs as well in both Pennsylvania and Ohio).
In Indiana on May 7, two former Republican congressmen are vying to return to Capitol Hill. John Hostettler, who was elected in the 1994 Gingrich Revolution and unseated in the 2006 Iraq War-induced blue wave, is running in the Evansville area. In the Fort Wayne area, former Tea Party favorite Marlin Stutzman is campaigning hard for his old seat being vacated by Jim Banks, who is competing for the open Senate seat there. Not to mention a very competitive Governor’s race.
Could Missouri have an abortion ballot referendum for November? We shall see. Nevada and Arizona appear to have put abortion access on their ballots (as has Florida, which also features a key Senate race playing out down there).
In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz has come out in favor of an idea few people would know of—never mind support. That is…to make it harder to receive an airline refund. Didn’t know that was even a debate on Capitol Hill. Speaking of Cruz, who is up for reelection, polls show a very tight race for US Senate in Texas at this very moment.
In Georgia, Fulton County DA Fani Willis will face a progressive primary challenger later this month. With the disruption of the Trump election subversion trial due to questions about the DA office’s competency in other cases, and the highly dramatized coverage of Willis’s affair with a special prosecutor in the case, it serves to be a high-profile local primary contest most pundits would not look at. Granted polls have considered Fani Willis to be the heavy favorite to win her primary.
West Virginia has a primary for US Senate—with Republican Governor Jim Justice the favorite to beat Congressman Alex Mooney in the Republican primary. If Democrats nominate convicted felon and notorious coal baron Don Blankenship, Governor Justice’s path to the Senate would get even easier than it already was at the start. Ironically might be better for Democrats than Houseyacht Manchin. Shame on Joe Manchin, and honestly, good riddance. And good riddance to his Epi-Pen price-gouging daughter while we’re at it.
Ever heard of someone faking a gunshot wound? Apparently, that is what Montana GOP Senate hopeful Tim Sheehy did. Also has a knack for hiring Christian nationalists. Remains to be seen how that will impact the bellwether contest—the toughest yet for Senator Jon Tester.
But in old election news, Congresswoman Summer Lee (PA-12) fended off an AIPAC-backed challenge against her, winning 58% of the vote. While another primary is coming in the coming weeks (that is, in NY-16 between Rep. Jamaal Bowman, and proud Andrew Cuomo ally George Latimer), House progressives might be breathing a major sigh of relief in what was another decisive reelection win for the Congressional Progressive Caucus (which is now as large as the New Democrat Coalition that has also embraced Biden’s working class, progressive populism in the post-Trump era).
And in NY-26, State Senator Tim Kennedy won his special election in Buffalo. Most importantly, he outperformed Biden’s 2020 performance, and even that of former Congressman Brian Higgins in 2022. Along with the Michigan special elections from April, Democrats continue the special election winning streak from the post-Dobbs period. Whether that directly portends success in November remains to be seen for the time being. But it does not stall the momentum felt on the ground across the country, and offers little solace for Republicans.
Beyond that, here is a general landscape of the US House map as of the 2022 lines, and the state of the US Senate map in place for 2024.
If you thought May is a busy month, wait until June when there will be even more primary cycle results to cover.
