Paying Attention to Upcoming Primary News

An Update on Several Contests This Month (Including Some This Very Tuesday)

First off, let us pay tribute to the late Senator Bob Graham, who passed away this week. As a former US Senator from Florida, he was an early opponent of the Iraq War. He also became a leading environmentalist in a body that had very few at the time. In fact, his environmental record stretched as far back as the early 1980s, when he was Governor of Florida. During his tenure in Tallahassee, Florida underwent a massive economic expansion in job growth.

His record of success even earned him consideration several times for the VP shortlist in both 1992 and 2000. Given the troubles we see and experience in our political system today, we must always commend the honorable work of those who enter politics for the right reasons. And we must honor those in all levels of government who can inspire a new generation of political leadership in the years to come.

Here are some more recommendations. Great staff work in the Rhode Island bureau of The Boston Globe and, of course, The Providence Journal (although some politicians-turned Commerce Secretaries still have a somewhat testy relationship with local newspapers). Here is a major report by the Journal’s one and only Patrick Anderson on the Washington Bridge, which we now know could have jeopardized the safety of our current US President and his team back in 2022.

On a similar note, Rhode Island College senior Raymond Baccari is a local journalist to watch in RI in the years to come.

In other news, a worthy story in Georgia discusses the challenges of some voting rights organizations. Among them, incurring legal fees while facing a small donor base (a major contrast to voter suppression groups and political networks involved in partisan & racial gerrymandering). It is a common thread for other voting rights groups as well, who are left to go after repressive election laws and similar measures on their own. Election lawyers are becoming all the more important for what appears to be another very competitive election cycle.

Here is a recent take on President Biden’s messaging to blue-collar voters in bellwether regions of the country. There is no question that President Biden can appeal to these voters, if he doubles down on his working-class background and his return to traditional Democratic populist values. Yet will Biden fully exploit the opportunities he has? We shall see in the weeks and months to come.

Word is the Trump campaign has reached out to Democratic Primary “Uncommitted” voters—at least in Rhode Island. Will that actually fracture Biden’s coalition in 2024, or not? More to the point, how would Trump’s policy in the Middle East differ from Biden’s? Wouldn’t it be worse? Maybe we should ask Jared Kushner, who is pushing for the building of “valuable waterfront property” on the seafronts of devastated Gaza. Remember: this was once Trump’s “envoy for Middle East peace,” a man currently seeking to convert the blood of dead Gazans into a handsome real estate profit.

Are you concerned about the 2024 elections? Just in case, remember the 2022 midterms. Polls can and should be taken with a little grain of salt. And here’s some archived news footage which suggests this is not a new phenomenon either.

Finally, for those who did not see, the stakes of 2024 got even higher this week. ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel is contemplating moving out of the United States if Donald Trump wins the election because of just how often he mocks the former president. So, if only for the sake of Jimmy Kimmel and the future of late night comedy, do consider voting for Joe Biden.

So let’s begin:

AIPAC conference. Via monitordeoriente.com

Michigan recently had special elections for two seats in the Michigan House of Representatives. Both Democrats won, reclaiming the small majority that disappeared briefly with a tie caused by recent vacancies. Perhaps these victories are signs of staying power for the party base on certain issues, including the abortion access rollback backlash. Yes, these were heavily Democratic seats, but an underperformance or upset loss would not have looked good. The Democrat turnout machine did what it had to do.

The significance of issues like abortion (as demonstrated by the response to the recent Arizona Supreme Court ruling) can make or break other key contests for control of state legislatures in the Midwestern and Southern regions of the country. The Dobbs backlash was a big contributor the 2022 midterm over-performance by Democrats at the state legislature level. It also shaped the 2023 off-year elections, and it will likely continue to shape state legislature contests in 2024.

Other issues that will have similar effect include the fate of democracy & elections, gun policy, IVFs, marriage equality, community rights, the environment, and Republican corruption in states like North Carolina and Missouri.

In New York, Democratic State Senator Tim Kennedy is running in the special election for a vacant US House seat in Buffalo. He is expected to win there, and we will see the exact results a little more than a week from now.

In the US Senate, a competitive Democratic primary race in Maryland is taking shape for mid-May. On the one hand is Congressman David Trone, who has broken a record of $42 million in campaign fundraising and spending. Trone has stepped into hot water with several notable controversies such as his past donations to Republicans (sound familiar, Raimondo ally and McConnell donor Helena Foulkes?), his company’s business practices, some documented legal troubles, and the recent use of a racial slur in a House hearing. Self-funding candidates have major electability flaws, considering their past track record overall in 2022. Indeed, Trone himself lost a House race in 2016 to Congressman Jamie Raskin, despite breaking fundraising records back then.

On the other hand, we have Prince George County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who, if elected, would join Delaware Congressman Lisa Blunt Rochester as the first two African American women to represent their states in the Senate. The choice should be clear enough on the basis of representation, track records, and electability.

Incidentally, what does it say about Congress that there are more older millionaires and billionaires than there are women or non-white representatives in the body?Gerontocracies are one thing; oligarchies are quite another.

Now some consider Governor Larry Hogan the favorite for November. Could the Governor flip this Maryland Senate seat? Well, before victory is proclaimed prematurely, we should remember that other popular governors have otherwise failed to win statewide office. In 2020, there was Governor Steve Bullock, who lost in his bid for Senate in spite of a formidable campaign, high approval ratings in Montana, and notoriety from his Democratic presidential primary bid.

More applicable to this situation, however, is the fate of former Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle’s 2012 Senate campaign. Lingle, like Hogan, was a popular Republican governor in a deep blue state. Regardless, come November 2012, she lost her Senate race by more than 20 points. Ironically, she lost to the same candidate whom she narrowly defeated for Governor in 2002.

In other words, it is a little early to say that Hogan will pull off an upset, particularly given the stakes of 2024, and the overall political climate at this point.

In Pennsylvania, AIPAC is seeking to knock off another progressive Democrat in the House of Representatives. The Netanyahu lobby is apparently not satisfied with those that have condemned the actions of Hamas and stood in solidarity with Pittsburgh’s Jewish and Muslim American communities. No, to dare to even utter a bad word about the Israeli Prime Minister’s dangerous far-right governing coalition is reason enough to cancel progressive voices. As progressive Congressman, Zionist, and former synagogue head Andy Levin knows from experience, AIPAC will accept nothing less than 100% agreement with Netanyahu’s policies. Any resistance to Netanyahu in actions, or even in words, is enough to warrant being on AIPAC’s political hit list.

Debate is intolerable to Netanyahu’s far-right regime of true cancel culture. And that is why Rep. Summer Lee’s race is the one to watch this coming Tuesday.

In somewhat related Pennsylvania news, the Commonwealth’s Senate matchup will be formally set on Tuesday. It will be a contest between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick. McCormick, if you remember, was the one who lost in a previous Senate primary in 2022 to Dr. Mehmet Oz. In a show of his Pennsylvania roots, McCormick is running his campaign from his estate in Connecticut.

Last but not least in the runoff contests, Alabama has selected its nominees for a competitive House district this coming November.

There will definitely be more to come, so feel free to check out the full down ballot primary calendar with Ballotpedia’s 2024 primary season summary.

Either way, keep an eye on this blog for more to come on this and other key matters of importance. More news is on the horizon this upcoming week.