November 5, 2024 Election Guide:
Plus a Take On How the Election Night Counting Might Go.
Feel free to check the entire blog archives from “Political Pulse” & “Salzillo Report” on the 2024 primary cycle, rural outreach, redistricting litigation, base dynamics, campaign organization, the current media landscape, the issues at stake, Project 2025, Build Back Better, the progressive movement, the true story about former 2024 VP contender Gina Raimondo, and much more.
I will begin with a major development. In the case Vice President Kamala Harris is elected in the next few days, an organization has popped up to oppose any promotion of US Commerce Secretary and former Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo into a Harris Cabinet. Via Dan McGowan of the Boston Globe, meet Raimondo Watch, which will lead the opposition against any Raimondo job promotion, as future calls for scrutiny grow after this election in Rhode Island.
The election season is upon us, which is the more immediate concern for most people all across the country. This guide hopefully provides as much information as it possibly can in any corner of the country.
To vote, make sure you have a plan to vote at iwillvote.com or vote.org. There are other tools you can check out at local election offices in your hometowns or on the state websites for the Secretary of State’s office wherever you are. In Rhode Island for instance, you should be able to see whether you are already registered to vote or not.
Vote 411 is another good resource to check out for voter registration info, as is Hopkins Vote (feel free to Google both sites if you want to double check).
NBC News has a special page on knowing election laws and rules in each state, just as you can check election litigation developments at CBS News here, and as will local media sites in your neck of the woods, such as WPRI 12 in Providence, RI.
Also know that Common Cause and the American Civil Liberties Union and all of its state chapters are not only committed to protecting voters’ rights to participate in the political process, but are closely prioritizing election security and protection. So check their sites out if you or someone you know has any issues with voter suppression, voter intimidation, threats to election officials, legal disputes, cybersecurity, online misinformation, or otherwise.
As for what will be on the November ballot…
All 50 states will be deciding who to elect as their next President of the United States: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. In all fairness, the election will likely come down to the Main 7 (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina), but who knows? Maybe surprises will come out this year one way or another. Besides, we need to deliver as decisive a message to Donald Trump as possible, whether it be in Michigan, Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, Rhode Island, or Wyoming.
So make sure to vote wherever you are, and bring your friends too!
There are 34 US Senate seats up for election this year (in 33 different states), which Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is looking at very closely.
All 435 US House seats are up for election this year, which is broken down by 270towin.com.
(Just so everyone knows, I also highly recommend The Cook Political Report for election information, especially on the congressional level).
There are gubernatorial elections in only 11 states (North Carolina, New Hampshire, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, West Virginia, Washington State, Utah, North Dakota, and Delaware). Many of these states also hold down ballot election contests simultaneously, as will the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and Oregon strangely.
There are State Supreme Court races, which places like Bolts Magazine have analyzed closely.
There is even a way to follow your state legislature contests in the final days on places such as Cnalysis.com.
You can find ballot initiatives via Ballotpedia or the Ballot.org Hot Sheet too.
There are also local races and school board elections. For those in Providence, if you are getting tired of the charter school lobby-backed Stop the Wait RI mailers, then vote in your respective regions for Corey Jones, Andrew Grover, Tyrelle Stephens, Nightjean Muhingabo, and Heidi Silverio on November 5, or earlier.
For my Rhode Island subscribers, here are some ballot questions to know about:
Question 1: The Constitutional Convention Question. I can only say to other people to truly vote their conscience, but if you want to hear my supportive takes on it, feel free to check past takes from this year, including October 15, August 30, and June 19.
Do support Question 2 for higher education facilities, Question 3 for housing bonds, Question 4 for the green economy, and Question 5 (especially) for the arts.
Providence Question 6: A ballot initiative to fund Providence Public Schools. However, it would cost nearly $650 million, interest included, with a school district plagued by secrecy and financial irresponsibilities. I encourage people in Providence to vote No on this question. If you don’t trust RIDE & PPSD, don’t give them your hard earned money. I wouldn’t be caught in the lion’s den with the current leadership right now (which recently cut per diem pay for substitute teachers from $200 a day to $125 a day). This was without the permission or awareness of Providence’s Mayor, as RIDE and Angelica Infante Green are operating with no oversight whatsoever once they receive the check from the City of Providence. Green has taken it upon herself to slash substitute pay and further demoralize teachers.
Which goes to the last segment on the vote count, as other people have been talking about.
Do I believe the red mirage and blue shift trends will take place this cycle? I do. A lot of trends generally have been set in place, with most people preferring mail ballots and early voting being more Democratic, vs. Election Day vote being more Republican. More about that soon.
States count this differently though. To take what we saw in 2020 and 2022, states like North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Texas, and Iowa gave Democrats a head start in the early vote tallies, before Republicans came back strong in the Election Day vote. Arizona follows that trend somewhat even as a battleground.
That was the reverse in some other states, meaning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia & Nevada to a lesser extent. Election Day vote count came in earlier before the early in-person and mail-in ballots did. Republicans gained ground, before Democrats roared back. Just a part of the counting.
Some states have tried to change that in counting early votes right in advance of poll closures instead of right after them, especially the three Blue Wall bellwethers. That happened in Pennsylvania in 2022, though the trend mostly held back then. Michigan and Wisconsin had tried to make similar changes in advance for 2024.
Which goes to one last caveat now: after Republicans lambasted early voting options, they have now come around this year in almost a complete 180 to embrace it. They have turned out more GOP early voters than ever before, which then comes to the question of Democratic early votes and how many more will come out on Election Day.
If these 2024 indications mean anything, it is possible that the vote counting trends from 2020 and 2022 largely hold up. A blue surge in their vote count from early votes before, or after, a red mirage, or wave, in Election Day votes.
I anticipate the advantages on both ends, however the order goes, will even out a little more from 2020 and 2022, even as the general trends largely hold out.
Which means however the votes are counted, it is simply a part of the process. Whether it starts blue or red, or ends blue or red, it does not mean that the elections are rigged or being stolen.
So remember, Vote! Vote! Vote! And when Election Night comes, be sure to follow CNN’s John King (or if he gets sidelined for more of the melodramatic pundit commentary, switch over to MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki and his election cycle khakis).