Guest Post-Preview of 2025 Elections:

A Preview Of Election Night 2025 By Eli Goldstein

Back again with another guest post-and one more headline to flag:

Via The Guardian: “CBS News heavily edits Trump 60 Minutes interview, cutting boast network ‘paid me a lotta money’”

Via publicdomainpictures.net

This guest post only reflects the views and analysis of the author who wrote it. Eli Goldstein is a college junior who also blogs on Substack under “No One Asked, But…”.

Hi, my name is Eli, and I write No One Asked, But… I’m honored to write this pre-election night preview.

Tuesday’s elections mark the biggest Election Day since Donald Trump took office, and they’ll serve as both a bellwether and a referendum on Trump himself, as well as on the Democratic Party’s strategy and slate of candidates. From mayoral contests to state legislative races, attorneys general to ballot propositions, the results will shape the political landscape heading into 2026.

Virginia Governor

Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D) vs. Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R). Sears has run a deeply ineffective campaign, struggling to define a coherent message. Spanberger’s disciplined moderate image and cross-partisan appeal make her the clear favorite. I think Spanberger wins by 8-10 points.

VA Lt Gov

State Senator Ghazala Hashmi (D) vs. radio host John Reid (R)

Reid’s campaign was rocked by the release of explicit videos, creating friction within the Republican ticket. Hashmi’s campaign has been steady and issues-focused. Hashmi has to deal with the fact that downballot races usually underperform compared to the top of the ticket. I think there has been an effort to view her as an extremist due to her religion, which comes from Islamophobia. Hashmi didn’t help herself by refusing to debate her Republican challenger. But the polling aggregates show her leading by 3.4 points and a favorite to flip the office blue on Tuesday.

VA AG

Former Delegate Jay Jones (D) vs. incumbent Jason Miyares (R)

Jones’ campaign was derailed by leaked texts where he appeared to call for violence against a former GOP Speaker and police officers. Miyares, though vulnerable, may benefit from the controversy. While Spanberger, Hashmi, both US Senators and House and Senate leaders, condemned the comments, none called for him to drop out, and Jones has kept the polling surprisingly closer than one would think. Miyares is weakened by a close relationship with Trump, and I think that Spanberger and Hashmi’s margins might help Jones if it is a large win. The redistricting push might also boost turnout. It is hard to say who wins, but if I had to guess the winner, it would probably be Miyares.

VA State Legislature

VA House District 22- Incumbent is Republican Ian Lovejoy, who was first elected in 2023, and is up against Democrat and former state Delegate Elizabeth Guzman. This is a district that Harris won. This is expected to flip to the Dems.

VA House District 30- Incumbent is Republican Geary Higgins, who was elected in 2023. He faces a former Senior Climate Policy Advisor at the USDA, John McAuliff. The Republican is slightly favored.

VA House District 41- Incumbent is Republican Chris Obenshain, who was elected in 2023. His opponent is a rematch with former Chief of Staff for Sam Rasoul, Lily Franklin. This is expected to flip to Dems.

VA House District 57- Incumbent is Republican David Owen, who was elected in 2023. His opponent is May Nivar, a community outreach leader for Altria. Harris won this district in 2024. Dems are expected to flip this seat.

VA House District 71- Incumbent is Republican Amanda Batten, who was elected in 2019. This race will be a rematch from 2023 against elementary school receptionist Jessica Anderson. This is a district Harris won. Dems are expected to flip it.

VA House District 73- Incumbent is Republican Mark Earley Jr, who was elected in 2023. He faces civil rights attorney Leslie Mehta. Harris won this district, but the race leans Republican.

VA House District 75- Incumbent is Republican Carrie Coyner, who was elected in 2019. Her opponent is community advocate Lindsay Dougherty. Harris won this seat, and Dems are expected to flip.

VA House District 82- Incumbent is Republican Kim Taylor, who was elected in 2021. Her race is a rematch against auditor Kimberly Pope Adams. Harris won this district, and Dems are expected to flip.

VA House District 86- Incumbent is Republican A. C. Cordoza, who was elected in 2021. His opponent is car salesman Virgil Thornton Sr. Dems are slightly favored to win and flip.

VA House District 89- Incumbent Republican Baxter Ennis is not running for reelection. The race is between Republican Mike Lamonea, a former Chesapeake School Board Member and former ICE special agent, versus Democrat attorney Kacey Carnegie. This district was won by Harris, and Dems are expected to flip it.

NJ Gov Race

Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill is running against 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli. Sherrill has focused on affordability, fighting Trump, and her pragmatic record in Congress, while Ciattarelli has focused on similar issues, but also closely aligned himself with MAGA and Trump. The DOJ is deploying election monitors to oversee the voting process. Sherrill is heavily favored to win, but I think it will be between 5-7 points since NJ has been becoming redder, especially in statewide races lately.

NYC Mayoral

The election between Democratic Nominee Zohran Mamdani, Independent Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa has gotten quite contentious, with many attacks lobbed against each other. But make no mistake, Mamdani will win. He has bolstered his energetic young base with the announcement he will keep on popular, effective NYPD commissioner Jessica Tisch. Mamdani focuses mainly on the affordability issue, public safety, police reform, and how to tackle antisemitism/islamophobia and hate, and he has also talked about his views on the war in the Middle East, along with arresting Netanyahu. They have all received national and local attention, support, and blowback. Cuomo and Sliwa have attacked Mamdani for policies they describe as socialist, which he has called himself, and say his policies won’t work or get the support of the governor. I think Mamdani wins by a solid margin, but less than 50% of the vote, which will hamper his ability to declare a mandate and make it harder to legislate.

CA Prop 50

This is a proposition in California, focused on allowing the legislature to redraw the Congressional maps to target five Republicans and strengthen seven Democratic incumbents. This is a measure that has received a lot of national attention, given the fact that Texas started this gerrymandering war, and MO and NC have followed, with KS, IN, and FL all considering joining the fight. It is seen as the first real result to see if Democrats want to fight fire with fire. Democrats have had an easy time campaigning for the measure and raising money. As it has become clear that the measure will pass, the GOP/No side has stopped funding the NO Campaign. I think it passes with 58-62% of the vote.

PA Supreme Court Retention

Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht (all Democrats) are up for retention. Historically, such justices are easily retained barring scandal. There hasn’t been much polling, but many expect all three to be retained.

TX 18 Jungle Primary

• Following the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) in March, the crowded nonpartisan field includes:

  • Amanda Edwards (D) – former Houston City Councilor

  • George Foreman IV (I) – TV personality, and son of boxer George Foreman

  • Jolanda Jones (D) – State Rep

  • Isaiah Martin (D) – consultant

  • Christian Menefee (D) – Harris County Attorney

  • Carmen Maria Montiel (R) – former Miss Venezuela

• This solidly Democratic seat will almost certainly remain blue, but the runoff field is competitive.
  Prediction: Menefee and Edwards advance to the runoff.

Mayoral Elections

Seattle, Washington- You have Seattle Democratic Mayor Bruce Harrell vs fellow Democrat and community organizer, Katie Wilson, who is running to Harrell’s left. Harrell has the endorsements of Pete Buttigieg, WA Congressman Adam Smith, Secretary of State Steve Hobbs, various local officials, and 3 labor unions. Wilson has the support of Congresswoman Jayapal, various local officials, former NY Congressman Jamaal Bowman, and Planned Parenthood Alliance Advocates, Washington. Wilson is the favorite, especially since Seattle hasn’t reelected a mayor since 2005.

Minneapolis, MN- The Incumbent Democrat Mayor Jacob Frey has many opponents. He is running against State Senator Omar Fateh, MN Senate Chaplain Dewayne Davis, and numerous others who get less than 10% of the vote. Frey is mainly facing off against Fateh, and they will have an instant runoff if no one reaches 50%, which isn’t likely to happen. Voters can rank up to 3 candidates. Fateh comes from the same wing of the party as Mamdani does, and has the support of groups and individuals that are from that wing, such as Ilhan Omar. Frey is endorsed by Klobuchar, Walz, 3 city council members, and various trade groups. I expect Frey to win, since there are 12 additional candidates. I think when they are eliminated, much of that support will go to Frey.

Propositions.

Maine Question 1-Require Voter Photo ID and Change Absentee Ballot and Dropbox Rules Initiative- Would require Photo ID for all voting, insert partisan officials into elections, which are now conducted by non-partisan municipal clerks. Also makes it harder to request a ballot. The GOP seems to be backing this amendment, while ME Gov Janet Mills, Congresspeople Jared Golden and Chellie Pingree, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, President of the Maine Senate, Graham Platner, AFL-CIO, ME ACLU, League of Women Voters, DCCC, DGA, ME Democratic Party, and 3 local newspapers oppose it. It will be close, but I think it will fail.

Maine Question 2- Extreme Risk Protection Orders to Restrict Firearms and Weapons Access Initiative-If someone with a firearm seems dangerous, and someone reports them, a judge can either schedule a hearing within 14 days or take guns away and schedule the hearing. If they are deemed a threat, they would lose their firearm for up to a year, or until they can prove they are no longer a danger. It serves as a cooling-off period. The Portland Press Herald, Bangor Daily News, several medical organizations, and former Democratic President of the ME Senate Troy Jackson, support it, while Governor Mills, Maine State Police, Sportsman Alliance of Maine, a current republican state rep, and a former republican state senator, along with the Maine Republican Party, are opposed. I think this measure will fail.

Final Thoughts

Tuesday’s results will send clear signals about where the electorate stands on issues of democracy, governance, and extremism. From Virginia to Seattle, voters are not just choosing candidates; they’re shaping the narrative heading into the next national cycle.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you’ll join me over at No One Asked, But… for more post-election analysis.