Diving Into the Stakes of the 2024 Down-Ballot

Why 2024 Is More Than Just 7 Swing States.

Feel free to check the entire blog archives from “Political Pulse” & “Salzillo Report” on the 2024 primary cycle, rural outreach, redistricting litigation, base dynamics, campaign organization, the current media landscape, the issues at stake, Project 2025, Build Back Better, the progressive movement, the true story about former 2024 VP contender Gina Raimondo, and much more.

Self-proclaimed “Black Nazi” and pervert Mark Robinson, Lt. Governor of North Carolina via rightscoop.com.

If you do nothing else, please support our down-ballot Democrats via https://blue24.org.

People say Biden and Harris didn’t do much in 4 years. Well, the long track record built via Build Back Better says otherwise. Unfortunately, what Biden could not accomplish had less to do with Biden and more with how little gets done in Washington DC as a whole.

Two words: congressional dysfunction. This was why the rest of the Biden agenda remained obstructed, and why Republicans time and time again threaten to shut down the government over their unpopular agenda. It is why Republicans still oppose things like a price gouging ban, a windfall profits tax, protections for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, passing the PRO Act, codifying reproductive health, passing bipartisan gun safety laws, outlawing unfair gerrymanders, and enshrining voting rights in our democratic system permanently.

It is why the GOP even now pushes to cut police budgets across the country, block immigration/border safety compromises, expand the trickle-down corporate welfare system, and threaten the very lifelines that have lifted us up.

We have Congressional Republicans to thank. They have offered no good policies, so their only agenda is gridlock, obstruction, division, and theatrics. They are little more than show horses. Remember, deposed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was never going to give an inch on working with the President—never mind acknowledging Biden’s 2020 election victory. Meanwhile, MAGA’s QAnon Squad continued the work of obstructing the aid for Ukraine and the rest. Finally, Mitch “Kill the Bill” McConnell, in pattern with the Obama era, said he would stop everything the President would do no matter what with 100% of his focus on that very goal.

Honestly, how would you not want change in Congress? You may want to look then at the Republican Party, not the Democratic Party. As much as I disagree with Chip Roy, he is right: name one productive thing MAGA Mike Johnson has been able to accomplish. What is the Republican Party “agenda,” other than slogans, government shutdowns, Biden Administration investigations, and gridlock?

And Republican Senators like Markwayne Mullin literally picking fights with labor leaders (how did we get to that low bar)?

Make no mistake about it. To get the change we want and need, we need Democrats in the White House, in Congress, in governorships, and in the state legislatures. A Harris-Walz agenda will be in jeopardy from the start if they have no Democratic Congress with them. And the support of governors and state legislatures (plus you, the people) will be critical to preserving our democratic institutions.

On the other side of it, if Trump is elected, a GOP Congress would help him implement Project 2025 in its entirety as the rubber stamp they are and have been since 2016.

Classic examples of why 2024 means more than just the 7 swing states everyone is talking about: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Those states are still important—essential even. But they are not the entire ballgame.

Control of the United States Senate may very well be decided in states like Montana, Nebraska, Florida, Texas, Missouri, Maryland, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Control of the US House of Representatives may come down in no small part to around a dozen or more congressional districts in New York & California. Of course, it may also depend on many other seats in both the Midwestern & Southern regions of the country.

Key governors’ races are also on the ballot, especially in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and Washington State.

State legislatures are up for grabs all across the country, with control at stake outright in some way in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Montana, Maine, and Alaska. Even if Republicans in these states end up with a greater advantage over the other and hold onto their majorities, we Democrats can play the long game of eroding GOP supermajorities which enact unpopular laws agains the will of the people.

From there, we can flip some state legislatures in 2024, and we can be with the cusp of control of others heading into 2026 and 2028. Again, if we do not watch out, Republicans can try to do the same to us in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and Colorado.

Yes, there are local offices up this election year and races for school boards across the country, including in Rhode Island. More to the point, many states have ballot initiatives coming up, from abortion and marijuana legalization, to voter restrictions, economic project bonds, fair maps pushes, and the like.

Sure, the Harris-Trump matchup is a big deal. So is the character of the rest of our nation. The decisions we make from the bottom-up, will determine what we do domestically, and how, or if, we stand with our allies across the world (like the people of Israel, the people of Gaza, Ukraine, Poland, Taiwan, and the Philippines). Again, the Republican alternative? Shut down the government, risk defaulting on the debt, do more impeachments and investigations into Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Tim Walz, and refuse to certify the 2024 elections on the future January 6th. It’s all at stake.

Democrats have to have a national campaign to organize and mobilize from now to November. The energy and enthusiasm is truly real. Look at the United Center in Chicago this past August. People from all corners of the country were fired up and ready to go. That is energy for fresh new leadership and turning the page from the times of division and chaos with a vision for the future.

Sure, it is worth being perhaps a little cautious about underestimating Trump from 2020 and 2016. But we should also take lessons from 2022, and from 2006, 2008, and even 2012. Trump is not invincible, and, more important than underestimating him, we should not underestimate ourselves.

Former DNC Chair Howard Dean pioneered a new 50-State Strategy that precipitated widespread success across the country in the 2006 midterms and 2008 elections. Initially, people said the money wasn’t worth it. In the end, it actually worked out handsomely. Democrats built significant congressional supermajorities—or something very close to that—netted a number of gubernatorial mansions and statewide offices, and picked up dozens of state legislative chambers as well.

Believe it or not, there were competitive races even in states in the mold of Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Dean’s Democratic Party won some of these unlikely contests.

It was a smart decision not just on the decisive outcomes, but on the collaborative strategies. Empower state parties and local candidates, providing them with the resources, tools, and manpower they need to run professional campaigns of their own representative of their constituencies, while taking the electoral battles to them on the issues. Taking no community for granted, while also remaining passionate and committed to key progressive values, and focusing on kitchen table issues, standing on the side of organized labor and small businesses alike.

Democrats had little hesitancy at all back then (and in 2018) to talk about bread-and-butter, middle class economics, discuss cultural issues in a unifying way, and address national security and foreign relations issues abroad. 2006 is how we got Tim Walz after all.

Furthermore, the Democratic Party actually took the time to visit Rural America, to inspire the Industrial Heartland, to reimagine a New South, and to remake the political landscape in the West and East alike. The Obama-Biden ticket couldn’t do everything in a presidential campaign, but they even took the time in 2008 to talk about rural issues, visit small towns and industrial centers, rejuvenate base enthusiasm with women, non-white, and young voters, reach across the aisle, and promote a bold vision for our country. That is what needs to be done now.

It isn’t easy. No one said 2008 would necessarily be a home run for Obama’s Democrats at the get-go, and certainly not in 2012 either. But investing in the work can make a huge difference and pay immense dividends where it matters the most, more than just pure online anger fundraising against Trump’s allies.

Also, we know the real toll of cutting investment on outreach to places like Rural America, especially with how 2016 went.

So let’s offer a few examples of how this works in action (beyond the classic Senate matchups like Dave McCormick vs. Bob Casey Jr., Mike Rogers vs. Elissa Slotkin, Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde, Sam Brown vs. Jacky Rosen, and Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego, the marquee Mark Robinson vs. Josh Stein gubernatorial bellwether, and House matchups of that fold):

First, for US House races, there are plenty of competitive districts in the Midwest & South especially, but all across the country where races were decided by 10 points or less (see the most recent full Ballotpedia map in the link above). That means for both sides, plenty of House districts can be in play one way or another by November 5, which can further change and expand the map on both ends depending on how the presidential race plays out at the top, like if Trump falters and collapses.

The US Senate is even more so. Democrats really need ticket-splitters there. Senator Jon Tester will try going for victory a 4th time against Trump-backed, anti-Native American Tim Sheehy in Montana, a state Trump won in 2020 by 16 points, even with an abortion initiative on the ballot. In Ohio, dark money records are defining another competitive race between Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno, much like the record spending back in 2012 right after Citizens United, with a citizens redistricting initiative at stake too.

Almost everyone sees Texas and Florida as viable pickup opportunities for Democrats. Texas makes sense in Cancun Cruz winning his last reelection bid by only about 2 points, while the state has greatly shifted towards Democrats, from losing on the presidential level by as much as 20 points in 2004, to losing by only 6 points in 2020. Nor is Florida out of the equation, with initial polls showing a very tight race after an automatic recount in the last contest with the highly unpopular Medicare/Medicaid fraudster Rick Scott. More reason not to funnel the airwaves necessarily, but to empower the locals to invest and be present on-the-ground in communities like the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida from now to November. It is not hard to detect movement on the ground in recent weeks for both states.

Missouri and Indiana might be able to tell us something too. 1/6 Coup plotter Josh Hawley is not well-liked in Missouri, with approval ratings lower than Ted Cruz and Rick Scott. Like them, that is also why he is reserving a $1 million Super PAC ad buy to attack his Democratic opponent, 13-year Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, while skipping most debate opportunities. And he might not be wrong. After all, another Democratic veteran almost unseated former Missouri Senator Roy Blunt in 2016, outperforming Hillary Clinton statewide by as much as 16 points. Democrats won a number of statewide offices as recently as 2008 and 2012, including Secretary of State and State Treasurer. Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway was reelected in 2018 by 6 points, and Kunce himself is running a strong campaign on a classic old-school Midwestern Marshall Plan platform.

Not only are the polls still relatively close, Kunce has already outraised Hawley several times this year. More crucially, the enthusiasm from organized labor, farmers, and the African American community is palpable. A true farmer-labor coalition in Missouri could be a model for the nation if they are successful, or even close, in November, in addition to factoring the state’s abortion initiative and governor’s race there. Keep this sleeper race on the political radar.

Likewise in Indiana, in a repeat of 2012, infighting & controversy is putting Republicans in an uncomfortable position, with a Christian nationalist one heartbeat away from the Governor’s office. On the other side, a former Republican Superintendent of Education who picked a rural Democrat as her running mate. Along with a prominent rape case crippling to the state’s GOP Attorney General Todd Rokita, this could make politics a little dicier in Indiana. Indeed, flawed candidates in Richard Mourdock and Mike Pence made statewide races then as close as Indiana has ever witnessed before back in 2012.

All these states are still uphill battles, but what a statement it could be made that Democrats took the time to start a long term rebuilding and refortification of being a true national party, with some unlikely wins now potentially a reality. Even if it is still a slim reality.

As I said before, state legislatures are up for grabs, even if to shrink the supermajorities or close the gap closer to outright control, in all these parts of the country. It is a very busy cycle even outside the Main 7.

Do not be complacent or blinded by any of the poll talk, even in states in the mold of Iowa or Alaska. From Maryland to Tennessee and elsewhere, we need to earn each and every vote, Democratic or Republican.

But make no mistake about it, what starts this cycle can translate to a national rebuilding of the Democratic Party that hasn’t been seen post-2010. That would be just as healthy for our democracy, as is breaking Trump’s ironclad hold on the Republican Party. That is true democracy in action.