Checking America's Political Pulse:

The Official Salzillo Summer 2024 Campaign Brief

Feel free to check the entire blog archives from “Political Pulse” & “Salzillo Report” on the 2024 primary cycle, rural outreach, redistricting litigation, base dynamics, campaign organization, the current media landscape, the issues at stake, America’s political history, the progressive movement, the true story about Gina Raimondo, and much more.

If nothing else today, subscribe to Salzillo’s Two Cents. Especially after the release of the recent article on a Newcomer’s Guide to the Climate Crisis:

Via Raw Story. Colorado Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (A.K.A Beetlejuice).

But let’s begin our summer 2024 election coverage with New York State. Congressman Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) lost his expensive primary to AIPAC-financed Westchester County Executive George Latimer. It is a tough reckoning moment progressives should take advantage of. Progressives in themselves are not on the run, nor are their policies. However, the provocative style and rhetoric of some is costly.

Latimer was a very beatable candidate. Even as someone well-rooted in the community, he wounded himself with comments defending Andrew Cuomo, siding with Trump over Biden on taxes, praising Netanyahu’s failed record in Gaza, and effectively dog whistling on race multiple times. As we saw in PA-12, Summer Lee convincingly won her race against an AIPAC-backed candidate without much of a sweat. And she’s not the only notable example of progressive resilience.

Bowman himself, arguably, was his own greatest opponent. In what is a heavily populated Jewish district, incendiary rhetoric on Hamas and October 7th was just a step too far for even communities that support a ceasefire and are not totally in lockstep with Netanyahu. Bowman’s early denial of sexual violence by Hamas, for example, speaks for itself, and created a needless impression of progressives being anti-Semitic—running counter to what our policies and values stand for.

On top of that, pulling a fire alarm in the House when they were set to vote on a government funding bill is not an act I would recommend for any reelection campaign. And yes, a profanity-laced rally outside of the district is not the best way to use campaign resources and time when an onslaught of Big Money to the tune of $20+ million is badgering the entire electorate from start to finish. Sadly, and despite the real obstacles there, a more disciplined and less incendiary approach could have helped Bowman win re-election to another term.

Campaign and candidate quality matters. So does style, especially the kinds that turn off winnable voters or even previous supporters. A more detailed take on progressive politics (and my defense of the movement as a whole) will analyze this and other relevant topics more closely. All that said, we still should be concerned about dark money special interests turning our political system into a full-blown oligarchy.

In other New York news, a couple of contests on Long Island and Upstate New York have now set November matchups for several key House races.

In Colorado, Lauren Boebert’s district-hopping strategy appears to have played out perfectly. In a multi-candidate field (CO-04), she trounced her opposition with nearly 45% of the vote. Indeed, the GOP is not just the party of Donald Trump, but it is also the party of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert. The QAnon duo is back.

Otherwise, Trump’s near perfect record of GOP endorsements took a big hit this week in Colorado and Utah.

Now let’s turn to the old Commonwealth of Virginia. Congressman (and House Freedom Caucus Chairman) Bob Good is still locked in a close primary duke out with Trump-endorsed John McGuire. Take this into context. The race between Good and McGuire had not been formally called until recently, but if Good does indeed lose, it will be almost solely on the basis that he did not endorse Trump early enough in 2024. Trump cited Good’s support of DeSantis in the primaries as the reason for supporting his opponent. A recount is still looming.

Ironically, Good is claiming election fraud in favor of the Trump-endorsed McGuire. But unlike in the case of the Trump 2020 election claims, Republicans aren’t jumping on the “stolen election” bandwagon. Maybe that’s because they are beginning to realize that elections aren’t quite as rigged as they always claimed them to be. Perhaps they will promise to accept the election outcome in 2024.

Well, I wouldn’t hold my breath for that.

Meanwhile, Northern Virginia had a few open primaries. Only one seat (VA-07) will be really competitive, which features the high-profile Democrat Eugene Vindman against GOP Green Beret Derrick Anderson. Perhaps one of many bellwethers for control of the House in 2024.

Good news for Democrats in VA-10. What could have been a potential GOP pickup has been avoided—a potential worst case scenario. Let me explain. A Democratic candidate named House Delegate Dan Helmer was receiving a tranche of financial support from cryptocurrency interests, and a good amount of Netanyahu lobby support as well (although AIPAC’s formal endorsement went to moderate former VA Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, who placed 4th place with under 10% of the vote). Helmer also dealt with sexual harassment allegations in the final stretch of the primary campaign, a potentially devastating development in the House majority equation for Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Luckily though, Democratic State Senator Suhas Subramanyam eked out an important upset, which positions him to be the first Hindu lawmaker if elected to Congress in November. Special interests lose again.

In VA-02, a competitive matchup is set between GOP House incumbent Jen Kiggans and Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal. That race will be another bellwether in the fight for control of the House of Representatives on Hampton Roads.

For a potentially competitive Senate race—though a Republican win is still a stretch for the time being—Senator Tim Kaine will face the Oliver North-endorsed GOP nominee Hung Cao.

In Oklahoma, House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole faced a challenge from the far-right, which he was able to beat back very easily. Apparently, his wealthy self-funding primary challenger wants a rematch in 2026.

The Nevada primaries have come and gone without much of a bang.

And did I mention before that several SC GOP lawmakers lost their primary nominations after voting to curtail a near-total abortion ban in South Carolina? One might pass next time with these primary defeats.

Let’s look at some state legislature contests—and the New York political climate overall. Solidarity PAC was hoping to be a mini-AIPAC to bolster Clinton-esque corporate/moderate Democrats. How did they fare?

Well, they did not do well against incumbent progressive lawmakers in New York’s state legislature. Most of their challengers were dispatched easily and without any problem whatsoever. They also lost two hotly contested open seat races to NY progressives. Conservative Democrats in New York failed to gain ground of any kind this primary cycle, although granted they did fare better in protecting their incumbents. A rather mixed result at best for mini-AIPAC.

It is worth noting as well how establishment Democrats in New York have really squandered the party’s hopes in the Biden era with bruising losses in 2021, 2023, and of course most notably, the 2022 midterms. The current environment in the Empire State is brewing potentially even more trouble in 2024, courtesy of Governor Kathy Hochul, state party chairman Jay Jacobs, and others in the top leadership there. Congestion pricing is not a winning issue, folks. Anyone who’s telling you otherwise is handing you a bunch of malarkey.

Speaking of blue state blues, is Rhode Island also in play in 2024? When push comes to shove, I highly doubt it. But according to the latest poll from the Pell Center at Newport’s Salve Regina University, low approval rating for President Biden in the state, dismal numbers for the top statewide officeholders, and a high rate of support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have cut President Biden’s lead to about 7 points. Again, I highly doubt these results will hold, and I even doubt how accurately they reflect the views of the electorate now. Nevertheless, as in New York, malaise with the local Rhode Island political establishment could always come at a cost to the Biden-Harris ticket, and much more so to the local level of the state’s most dominant party.

Might even be worth wondering whether the specter of U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will be a noticeable drag on Rhode Island Democrats overall, and a boon for progressive and conservative opponents alike. She may also be an indispensable argument in the debate surrounding the push for a State Constitutional Convention in 2025-2026. Between the Eleanor Slater Hospital fallout, the recent developments around DCYF practices and UHIP costs, the disastrous Providence Schools state takeover, the questions lingering around the state’s pension system, and the ongoing closure of the Washington Bridge, I imagine Raimondo’s legacy could become a political liability for Rhode Island Democrats running in 2024, and a campaign energizer for the diverse opposition (and then you might ask, could it even shrink Biden’s 2020 margin in any way?).

Also worth noting that despite Raimondo’s massive PR operation (with the help of allies like Catherine Rampell), she is still relatively unknown to the national public as a whole (and like most other unknown Cabinet members, has a net negative approval rating. No reason to complain about FTC Commissioner Lina Khan’s press coverage, Gina). Raimondo’s PR operation so far has been a dismal failure despite her team’s best efforts. And it is not over yet.

Finally, I will leave with some debate advice for President Biden. Policy is important. I like the weeds of policy myself. But remember to show who you have always been. Show your Scranton roots. Talk about your moving personal story, and how it informs everything you do. Show your empathy and how you got it over the years. Tell us what you have seen in this country over the decades. Make us know what you feel about the two presidential records that are there. And make the case for why your 2nd term vision is better and more ambitious than Trump’s ever could be.

Salzillo, signing out.