A Tribute to President Joe Biden & Some Simply Fascinating 2024 Election Stats:
Analyzing the Biden-Harris Administration Legacy & The Big Numbers Behind Trump’s 2024 Reelection Campaign; An Electoral Lesson on How Demography Isn’t Destiny.
Feel free to check the entire blog archives from “Political Pulse” & “Salzillo Report” on the 2024 primary cycle, rural outreach, redistricting litigation, base dynamics, campaign organization, the current media landscape, the issues at stake, Project 2025, Build Back Better, the progressive movement, the 2024 Election Autopsy, the true story about former 2024 VP contender Gina Raimondo, and much more.
As we now eerily emerge upon the second inauguration of Donald Trump, I come to the time of how Democrats like myself reckon with it.
First, considering the extremely tight timeline (107 days), it is hard to pin much blame on Vice President Kamala Harris herself as a candidate. In some ways, how she performed was still impressive, and may have certainly blunted the impact of GOP down ballot success had President Joe Biden stayed in the race.
Of course, I say that with the benefit of hindsight as I look back at how vulnerable Biden really was politically after the debate. The switch gave many down-ballot Democrats a fighting chance, which is both a credit to her and to the President. Besides, her instincts (without the interference of Obama era and corporate-connected campaign officials) were on point in many regards, particularly in picking Tim Walz as her running mate.
Sure, the buck still stops with her in how the campaign could have been run better. That said, a major issue was how a bad campaigning system did a great disservice to her. That is, this cycle we saw how out-of-touch the consultant class really was, both on messaging and on organization. Similarly, this cycle we saw how the pleas of particular donors (cough, cough, Reid Hoffman & Reed Hastings) to move on certain policy priorities diluted the populist message Harris should have been giving. Then we saw the use of celebrities like plush toys, as cover for the insubstantial show of the last weeks of the campaign.
The election outcome is more or less an indictment on the party campaign system in place than on Harris as an individual candidate. Plus, it was a reflection of how much the media apparatus absorbed and normalized/”sane washed” the chaos of the Trump presidency. This is all fundamentally different from what happened in 2016.
It’s one thing for Trump to be elected once. For him to come back the way he did, it has to say something about how people feel about the system, and how much people have gotten used to him as “leader of the free world.” Much like what Bernie Sanders has said since 2015, and even earlier, we do have a rigged system that favors campaign contributors and special interests, and leaves the common man and woman behind. It is abundantly clear Trump was preferred by many people as a system smasher and rules breaker, something we Democrats discounted and took for granted after 2016.
So what about President Joe Biden?
He had a lot of bad luck, inheriting practically an economic recession, a raging pandemic, and deep political and cultural divisions. He had a bad break with worldwide (key word: worldwide, with the U.S. having the least of it and the strongest economy in recovery from it) inflation and immigration, both of which easily explain Trump’s comeback bid in 2024 even as global issues. The Afghanistan withdrawal, perhaps his biggest mistake as President, and the plight of Israel-Gaza undoubtedly took a toll across the board.
The age question is one of the mysteries that will linger. How? When? Why? What? There won’t be easy answers, although there are lessons to look upon to from the days of Abraham Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Ronald Reagan. Namely, the types of questions raised about the president’s health during the Biden Administration are nowhere near unprecedented, unlike the historically unprecedented norm-breaking behavior of the Trump presidency.
Like, for example, Trump providing aid and comfort to insurrectionists on January 6. And possibly pardoning those same insurrectionists for breaching the Capitol in a domestic attack (including violent police attackers) that has never once occurred in our history prior to this moment.
Biden would have also been a far more palpable, even motivating choice for 2016 than Wasserman Schultz’s handpicked favorite for President, Hillary Clinton, who mainstreamed Trump in the first place.
Even with all of that, I feel almost certain history will give a fair evaluation to President Biden. Will much depend on how we navigate the Trump era, and hopefully reclaim our democratic values? Maybe.
Notwithstanding that, President Biden’s legislative record is still one many Presidents, Democratic and Republican alike, could only dream of, from high-profile agenda successes, to a profound number of bipartisan laws enacted, and bold executive actions. His many policy achievements will be remembered as historically groundbreaking, monumentally consequential in policy approach, and beneficial to the country in the results accrued since first assuming the office, especially with breakthroughs in healthcare, education, climate policy, labor advocacy, consumer safety, infrastructure & transportation, gun safety, manufacturing reshoring, and agriculture. Even outside of the strong domestic resume and the economic recovery from 2020, Biden’s foreign policy chops were strong in a number of areas, especially on Ukraine (e.g., the unprecedented and successful intelligence sharing in the lead-up to the invasion of Ukraine, the limited military gains of Russia even now, the successful operations against North Korean soldiers, etc.), NATO’s unity against Russia’s axis, and the China competition.
His many appointments to the judiciary, to his Cabinet, and to various independent agencies are also very significant, widespread, and memorable, from civil rights figure and Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, to unconventional pioneer/Federal Trade Commissioner Lina Khan, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, underappreciated Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, Labor Secretaries Marty Walsh and Julie Su (acting), Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. Their work is also very consequential, and will likely be looked upon for a long time as much as his presidential agenda will remain a part of the Democratic Party’s core values in a needed break from the past 3 decades.
Indeed, if many larger programs were not torpedoed by Manchin and Sinema early on, like the expansion of unemployment insurance, the beefed up food aid, the eviction moratorium, the pandemic Medicaid coverage, and the Child Tax Credit, today might be just a little bit different. And we might have a President Kamala Harris.
Much like the late Jimmy Carter, Biden is ahead of the curve on many issues. To pick one of many, the climate crisis as a moral, political, and economic issue. We see that right now with the California wildfires where insurance companies won’t cover homeowners in climate-vulnerable areas like Florida, Louisiana, or the South Carolina Lowcountry all while such natural disasters occur more frequently. Climate is a pocketbook issue indeed, as is the oligarchic concentration of wealth and power.
But finally, and most important, President Biden will also be remembered for his compassion, empathy, and his can-do underdog spirit. In spite of the odds, he stayed true to his values and always gave a good fight until the bitter end, even in a narrowly divided Congress and a highly polarized electorate. Furthermore, likewise in his entire career, he took the time to understand the struggles of working families, bring people to the negotiating table (almost remarkably), and sympathize with them in times of struggle, loss, and grief.
Moreover, in just about the nightmare scenario for a man dedicated to the preservation of democracy, President Biden has led a Trump transition that exhibits his enduring faith in the American people—even now—to correct course if Trump threatens the institutions they should hold dear to themselves. As he would say, “you can’t only love your country when you win,” and he has demonstrated that in words and in deeds.
Maybe not now, but in 4 years the people of America may remember that example when they look at the chaos and damage Trump will likely have created.
History will treat President Joe Biden fairly well, as it did Harry Truman and now Carter. Remember that both of these prior presidents (including Truman) left office with approval ratings in the 30s. Carter was the president who couldn’t get the hostages out, and Truman was the “weak leader” who lost China and “got us stuck” in a stalemate in Korea.
If “Trump Nostalgia” was something that could happen in the wake of the Biden presidency, then “Biden Nostalgia” might very well kick in when people once again experience who Donald Trump is and always has been as President.
I will admit, Trump is a good con artist. Give him credit for being the effective marketer and salesman he is, however slimy the snake oil product that is used. But that is all he is, a great salesman. With a terrible product.
Which is to say Democrats frankly need to get their crap together for primetime. Enough of the capitulation, the groveling, the Mar-a-Lago kiss the ring meetings (Eric Adams or Joe Scarborough), the focus on non-issues like TikTok, Biden’s age, and the like. We need a strong, moral opposition, not a watered-down version of MAGA using kiddy gloves.
People soured on Democrats because they (rightly) seen most of them as “wishy-washy.” What worse way is there to bounce back from that than becoming even more wishy-washy?
Again, take a lesson from President Biden, folks. In his interview with Lawrence O’Donnell, he rightly raised alarm bells about the threat to democracy and our institutions (though he did not mention Donald Trump by name, everyone should have a clear idea of what Biden was talking about). Those concerns should continue to be put at the center. If the American people did not care enough about it this cycle, find a way to make them care. The fate of the country depends on it.
AN ELECTION APPENDIX (OF SORTS):
And now, with all due credit given to the work of Chaz Nuttycombe, Drew Savicki, Siddarth Khurana, and other underappreciated data crunchers, let’s digest some intriguing electoral data from the 2024 presidential campaign (by the way, give a follow or subscription to their pages):
Well, with Chaz, I can only offer a very basic number-crunching for now. He has a very neat breakdown of several states based on state legislative districts, and in the party down ballot numbers too. Check him out at statenavigate.org or on Twitter, Bluesky, etc.
Interesting stat though: Republicans gained 53 state legislative seats nationwide, which is still good, but relatively modest relative to several past election cycles (including 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2020).
Also, on the other side of things, Donald Trump won all but one State House district in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley.
Okay, moving on now. You can find Drew Savicki on Substack too. Interestingly, I found out from him that Congressman Gabe Amo outperformed both Vice President Harris by several points in RI-01, as did RI Senator Sheldon Whitehouse.
Meanwhile, consistent trends in South Florida where Jewish precincts and districts shifted towards Trump by double digits, around 12-14 points in some cases, including FL-SD 37.
The same pattern applies to Orthodox Jewish voters in Brooklyn.
Chicago’s 11th Ward, composed primarily of the Bridgeport neighborhood and predominantly Asian American, shifted towards Trump by about 20 points. Harris won by only 15 points compared to Biden’s 35-point margin in 2020.
On a somewhat related note, while I cannot confirm if what was referred to is just Michigan House District 3, or Dearborn entirely, I can say that Trump won the area by 7 points after losing it by 56 points in 2020.
There was a 14-point swing to Trump from 2020 to 2024 in Arizona’s Navajo Nation precincts. Harris got 10,000 less votes here than Biden did in 2020.
In addition to 13-15 House Democrats who were victorious in Trump-won districts, a number of House Democrats not only outperformed Harris, but actually did better than Biden’s 2020 numbers. Even with Trump’s impressive (relatively-speaking) 2024 victory, though not nearly a mandate in the popular vote (49.8% to 48.4%), or the down ballot.
Here’s a rarity: a Democratic state rep. in Southwestern Connecticut lost reelection despite Harris winning the district by double digits.
Another interesting number: Gainesboro, TN. Obama won it by 25 points in both 2008 and 2012. Trump won it in 2016 by 10 points, by 37 points in 2020, and by 49 points in 2024.
How about this? In Cumberland County, New Jersey (home of Millville and Vineland alongside the Delaware border), the incumbent Democratic County Clerk Celeste Riley won reelection by 3 points despite a double-digit swing for both Trump and GOP Senate candidate Curtis Bashaw.
Plus, a 10-point swing for Trump in the Detroit union suburb of Sterling Heights, Michigan.
Also quite a post-mortem for Southwestern Pennsylvania Democrats to read.
And in RI-HD 13, a predominantly Hispanic district in western Providence and eastern Johnston, Harris won here 54%-44%. In 2012, Obama won 80% of the vote to Mitt Romney’s 20%.
Okay, moving on again. Siddarth Khurana is another aggressive data cruncher, who is on LinkedIn:
Laredo, Texas Metro (South Texas). In 2012, Obama racked up a 54-point margin. In 2020, Biden got a 23-point margin. In 2024, Trump won by 2 points.
Selective Northern Maine-Canada border towns: Obama accumulated a 42-point margin, Biden lost by only 0.1 points, Trump racked up a 12-point victory
Hibbing, Minnesota (Minnesota Iron Range Town). In 2012, Obama won here by 31 points. Biden lost here in 2020 by 3 points. Harris lost by 6 points.
Johnston, Rhode Island (New England Blue-Collar Suburb). Obama took 57% of the vote. Biden neared 45%. Harris took about 38% of the vote.
Lackawanna, New York (Precinct #2). Obama won here by 42 points. Harris won by only 2, with Stein siphoning votes in the large Yemeni American community.
Woonsocket, RI (Blackstone Valley mill town). Obama garnered 65% of the vote in 2012. Biden got 52%. Harris reached 48%. Last voted Republican in 1984.
Pittston, Pennsylvania (Wyoming Valley Coal Country). Obama accumulated a 35-point margin. Biden won by 8 points. Harris won by 1 point.
Yakima, Washington (in Yakima Valley, 48% Hispanic). Romney +5, Trump +5, Biden +4, Trump +1.
Berlin, New Hampshire (Androscoggin River paper mill hub). Obama +39, Biden +7, Trump +4.
Sunland Park, New Mexico (nearby El Paso & Juarez). Obama +62, Biden +39, Harris +14.
San Luis, Arizona (90% Latino border town). Obama +82, Biden +51, Harris +19.
Hazleton, PA Ward 1 (predominantly Dominican Republic precinct in Luzerne County). Obama +27, Biden +10, Trump +11.
Ashtabula, Ohio (Northeastern Ohio city). Obama won in 2012 by 43 points here. Biden held on by 9. Trump flipped it in 2024 by 0.3 points.
Kiryas Joel, NY (Hasidic Jewish area). Trump won with 98.5% of the vote to Harris’ 1.28%. Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer took 81% of the vote there in 2022.
Fort Bend County, Texas Precincts 3125 & 3135 (20% Pakistani). Biden won by 28 points. Harris held on by 7 points.
Edison, NJ Voting District 78 (95% Asian, primarily Indian). Biden racked up a 64-point margin. Trump won in 2024 by 30 points.
Jamaica, Queens Trump childhood precinct (43% Asian, 27% Black). Biden won by 67 points. Harris won by 38 points.
Golden Glades, Florida (75% Black, 40% Haitian). Biden +71, Harris +58
Nanticoke, Pennsylvania (Wyoming Valley). Obama +24, Trump +6, Trump +12
Hope, Arkansas (47% Black, 28% White, 24% Hispanic). Biden +12, Harris +6
Lakewood, NJ (Haredi Jewish community). Trump +65 in 2020, Trump +75 in 2024
Holyoke, Massachusetts Ward 2B (Puerto Rican community). Obama +86, Biden +44, Harris +21
Flushing, Queens precinct (predominantly Chinese). Clinton +41, Biden +21, Trump +8
Nanakuli, Hawaii (82% Pacific Islander). Clinton +21, Biden +0.1, Trump +10
Beverly Hills, California (Persian Jewish electorate). Clinton +31, Biden +11, Trump +5
Doral, Florida (33% Venezuelan). Clinton +42, Biden +4, Trump +23
Passaic, New Jersey (primarily Mexican and Dominican). Obama +55, Biden +19, Trump +6
Youngstown, Ohio metro (Mahoning Valley area). Obama 2012 +20, Trump 2024 +14
Hialeah, Florida (75% Cuban). Trump 2016 +0.1, Trump 2020 +34, Trump 2024 +53
Miami, FL. Clinton +40, Biden +19, Harris +1
Palisades Park, New Jersey (mostly Korean). Biden +22 to Harris +7
Hamtramck, Michigan (Arab/Muslim). Biden +72 to Harris +4
Portage County, Wisconsin (Polish county). Biden +3 to Harris +1
Parma, Ohio (Ukrainian enclave). Trump won in 2020 by 5.3 points. Racked up 6.8-point margin in 2024. Trump also won the city of Springfield, OH outright.
Arlington, Virginia (Peruvian Electorate). Biden +64, Harris +60
Surry County, Virginia (Black Belt depopulation). Obama +21, Biden +9, 2024 Trump +0.5
Anson County, North Carolina (Black Belt Depopulation) Last voted Republican in 1972; Obama garnered 62% of vote in 2012, won by Trump in 2024
Jimmy Carter’s Precinct in Plains, Georgia: 2012 Obama +9, 2020 Trump +2, 2024 Trump +9
Elm Grove, Wisconsin (white Milwaukee suburb). 2012 Romney +36, 2020 Trump +3, 2024 Harris +1
Maharishi Vedic City, Iowa (Sanskrit Veda followers). Obama +15, Biden +2, Trump +10
New Bedford, MA (Portuguese-Cape Verdean community). Biden +24, Harris +8
Trump won 22% of the vote in Chicago after garnering only 12% in 2016
Lowell, MA Cambodian precincts. Biden +53, Harris +25
Not to mention Trump reportedly ginning up turnout in Pennsylvania’s Amish community
My thanks as well to @uncrewed, @mill226, David Shor, Frank Calabrese, Jose Manrique, and many others, who are all offering more info by the day.
Another point from this to the delight of Congresswoman Debbie Dingell and Senator Sherrod Brown: Democrats need more leadership members from the American Heartland and not just on the coastlines.
And that is why it is more important than ever for the Democratic Party to have a DNC Rural Desk and Rural Council, a 50-State Strategy, a devoted Build Back the Base effort, an Election Litigation Center, strong state parties everywhere, long-term down ballot investments, off-year engagement and presence, a myriad, representative bench of working class candidates, and an adept media strategy for social media platforms, podcasts, local newspapers & radio, small town advertising, and foreign-language outlets.
Get to it, Democrats! The country is counting on you.
Great job, Michael! Hope the Dem leaders of tomorrow are listening. That is all I can say.