A 2023 Election Brief and the Previews for 2024
2023 Elections have wrapped up, 2024 is ramping up, and other news...
Before I start, so much has happened in so little time. First off, a tribute to the late Ady Barkan. Mr. Barkan offers a tremendous story and a true example of leadership and advocacy on the national and global stage. If nothing else, take a look at his tale of resilience here if you can. It’s an inspiring story for anyone with those types of challenges or similar ones (I myself am a proud member of the disability community). The musical fable of Billy Joel rings truer than ever.
Also, another recommendation from LinkedIn: check out Mr. Doug Kaplan. Kaplan offers consulting services and the like for those searching for a little help.
But now let’s move on to the big topics of the week—some of which hit on themes from past entries in my Substack and Medium blogs:
We cannot underscore the significance of past Tuesday’s elections. Virginia’s elections dealt a consequential blow to GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin’s presidential ambitions. Although both chambers have slim margins of control relative to the past several years, and although the Commonwealth remains competitive political territory in the South generally, Democrats clearly were able to retain their State Senate majority and flip control of the Virginia House of Delegates after losing it in 2021. Core base issues of abortion access, gun safety, voting rights protections, environmental actions, education funding, and healthcare programs proved to be very salient against a popular Republican governor whose policy stances were nevertheless very unpopular among Virginians. The Commonwealth may not be the blue bastion it was during the Trump Era (culminating in Biden’s 10-point victory in 2020; 54%-44%), but neither is it the rock-ribbed or cherry-tinted red Southern state it once was.
Similarly, Democrats won key contests for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, the Ohio abortion & marijuana referenda, and state assembly races in New Jersey(don’t forget Gabe Amo’s historic victory in RI-01), outperforming even Biden’s recent numbers from 2020.
Moving into the Deep South, while we need to keep the caveats in mind, Democrats were rather successful even compared to most off-year elections. Of course, Louisiana’s governorship easily flipped back to Republicans, which turns out to be in part from lack of investment in the state’s Democratic Party by outgoing Governor John Bel Edwards, who narrowly won his reelection bid in 2019; 51%-49%. On the other hand, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection by 5% in a state Trump won by 26% in 2020 (62%-36%; Biden only carried two large urban counties in that Commonwealth, counties representing Louisville and Lexington). Finally, despite the political climate of the Deep South, Biden’s still rather low approval ratings, and low name recognition, Elvis Presley’s less-famous cousin Brandon Presley gave incumbent GOP Governor Tate Reeves a run for his money in Mississippi.
So what does this portend for 2024? To be frank, Democrats will not be in the running to flip Kentucky, Mississippi, or Louisiana regardless of the political environment in place, even under the most favorable circumstances. But there are clues of what Democrats can do for 2024. Especially with Governor Andy Beshear, we saw a lane where Trump Country can be opened, and a potential for ticket-splitting we have not fully taken advantage of. While Beshear has a distinct personality and a well-distinguished family dynasty, it still seems rather remarkable that the Kentucky Governor won his reelection not on avoiding but embracing traditional Democratic causes. True, his GOP rival, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, embraced highly unpopular positions on abortion and gun safety, and ran a very divisive campaign that Beshear countered effectively. Still, Governor Beshear ran on a true Democratic Party platform. He ran on his healthcare initiatives and building off the success of his father Steve Beshear’s tenure on healthcare. Governor Beshear embraced clean energy programs, economic development in rural areas, and recovery initiatives post-natural disasters. He ran on funding public education—instead of siphoning money off to private for-profit schools—and supporting teachers and students alike (a lesson to “school choice Democrats” like former Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza). And he stood with organized labor and for consumer safety instead of running away from them. Beshear was able to win Trump voters on all of this, and thus offers a blueprint for the 2024 Biden-Harris ticket.
Likewise, Mississippi offers just as many lessons for the Democratic Party. It goes like this: state party organization matters. Contrast it with Louisiana. John Bel Edwards could have done more to support the state party, as a party insider in Louisiana said publicly. It did not have to be a one-time opportunity for Louisiana Democrats. Even after falling short in past cycles, Mississippi Democrats have not given up. As a result, since 2016, the state party has been able to keep several statewide contests close with candidates like Mike Espy, Jim Hood, and Brandon Presley.
Presley is particularly notable for his significant outreach to Southern, rural African American voters, a strategy that paid off huge dividends on Tuesday. And his populist economic platform, and anti-establishment and anti-corruption stances were able to convert some moderate white Republicans. Even if it wasn’t enough, and despite only representing a third of the state on the Public Service Commission, Presley gave Republican incumbent Tate Reeves the closest gubernatorial race in state history since Democrat Ronnie Musgrove was first elected in 1999. Consider Beshear and Presley the future templates for a new “Southern Strategy”—without the racism. If nothing else, they will help show Democrats the strengths of bringing back the Dean 50-State Strategy with a DNC Rural Desk appropriately established and maintained, and the strengths of aggressive outreach and engagement with the party base—including African Americans and Hispanics & Latinos—for 2024.
Southern contests like these can provide critical tests for outreach efforts for races in Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas—and, if such a miracle is possible, Florida. Virginia and Ohio offer models for the Democratic Party to rev up the party base of young voters, women, and people of color. All indications are that the Supreme Court’s recent decisions—the Dobbs ruling especially—have alienated the country because they run against longstanding American values and national public opinion.
Virginia’s story is so remarkable not only because control of the General Assembly was at play, but also since several key victories against Youngkin and his allies came with the rise of younger, more diverse candidates. Candidates with both dynamic working class backgrounds and perspectives, and consistent—yet effective—messaging. However, if Virginia & Ohio are success stories we should replace in the Midwest and South, Long Island is still a warning that GOP crime and immigration pitches have resonated strongly for the second election cycle in a row despite the current political tides.
Party base enthusiasm on issues like abortion and gun policies would be tantamount to a successful President Biden reelection campaign. Yet so would issues like civil rights protections, voting rights issues (such as the blatantly overt and unconstitutional racial gerrymanders in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and other Southern states), criminal justice reform, marijuana legalization and drug sentencing reforms, the maternal mortality crisis, obesity, environmental injustice, learning loss, the cost of living, and income inequality. Not only would addressing these issues and touting the Biden presidency’s record reenergize the base, but it would take the focus away from classic GOP red meat culture wars and help us win over some of the Trump Country electorates today (especially in the Industrial Midwest).
Such a strategy might be needed with a House map that still relies on rural voting power. A high-ranking Massachusetts U.S. Congressman has acknowledged privately that challenge when discussing holding and retaking House seats in Midwestern states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Furthermore, we are dealing with a highly disadvantageous and lopsided Senate map that has to be defended—if we don’t want to be forced to pick up seats in Texas, Florida, Missouri, or Indiana. It didn’t help that, in classic Manchinema style, notable fossil fuel tycoon, corporate shill weasel, and privileged house yacht owner Senator Joe Manchin announced his retirement from his West Virginia seat. To add insult to injury, he is probably retiring to explore potentially running for President on the No Labels ticket, filled with old political blasts-from-the-past like GOP-loving Independent Joe Lieberman and MAGA-supporting Republican Pat McCrory. This is the same Manchin whose daughter price-gouged families for Epi-Pens and outsourced West Virginia jobs overseas. Perhaps given this family history, it shouldn’t surprise us that Manchin wants to join a secretive, dark money organization whose goal is obviously to reelect Donald Trump as President. In short: good riddance to Joe Manchin.
Meanwhile, Kyrsten Sinema has been waffling on her own reelection bid. Even though she claims to be the greatest thing in the Senate since sliced bread by protecting the Jim Crow filibuster and—with Manchin—sabotaging what could have been a much more ambitious Build Back Better program. Like Manchin, Sinema cannot tout even one legislative accomplishment during her tenure that involved her leadership. Like Manchin, all she can do is praise the Senate’s “great functions” like the continued use of the obstructionist filibuster and the passage of groundbreaking legislation that came about in spite of her and Manchin, not because of them. Also, I have to ask: since Senator Fetterman has been pummeled by Republicans for violating the standard dress code, why doesn’t the GOP ever criticize Sinema’s fashion choices? Maybe it’s because they like Sinema’s do-nothing Democratic agenda. Maybe why Arizonans highly disapprove of her job performance like Manchin in West Virginia.
All of this is to make the point that the Democratic Party should and must turn away from Clintonian corporate centrism and conservative appeasement to embrace the New Deal and Great Society values that made our party truly great. Then, the Democratic Party must expand on that further; following up on state legislatures and offices making great strides of progress in many places this year like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois.
That would be a true Progressive Promise for this entire country; one that progressives and even many moderates and some conservatives would accept. It would help instill in all of us a sincere, deep commitment to bend the moral arc of the universe towards justice, and to form that “More Perfect Union.” Together, we can revive grassroots organization in the Democratic Party once again.
With every passing day, Ron Johnson gives more and more reasons for why he wants to-and should be recalled-by Wisconsin voters. Because his comments on 9/11, 1/6, 2020 elections, climate change, vaccine safety, government shutdowns, and Hunter Biden are asking for it. And his business conflicts on the record already are validating it. Not unprecedented either. The GOP attempted to recall former US Congressman Dave Obey in 1990. Who wants a rematch election?
Feel free to sign the petitions on Change.org and MoveOn calling for another Burton-Waxman Commission to be set up in Rhode Island to investigate the alleged political misconduct and criminal activity of US Commerce Secretary-and former RI Governor-Gina M. Raimondo(following up on letters sent this past week to congressional leaders and the US Department of Justice calling for needed help).
And have a Happy Veterans Day Weekend!