Feel free to keep tabs on this research manual and strategy guide for the progressive pro-democracy movement on Substack, Medium, and LinkedIn, including past pieces on the 2024 Autopsy, Bench-Building, DOGE News, Project 2025 Authoritarianism, Progressive Populism, and more (First Come, First Serve!).
Let me get to the breakdown of the key midterm races that will matter for 2026:
US Senate:
Michigan: The US Senate race in Michigan is currently a three-way primary race between Congresswoman Haley Stevens, State Senator Mallory McMorrow, and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed.
Dr. Abdul El-Sayed runs on an unabashedly progressive platform that includes single-payer healthcare, a Green New Deal, a tough approach to Senate leadership, and an end to the inhumane carnage in Gaza.
State Senator Mallory McMorrow, a former Elizabeth Warren 2020 supporter, campaigns as a bold leader for new generational change, while also hinting at pragmatic politics.
Congresswoman Haley Stevens offers an interesting backstory as someone in the Obama administration who rescued the auto industry and came into office in the 2018 blue wave. She is running as an establishment politician with not-so-subtle backing from Kirsten Gillibrand’s DSCC. More strikingly for some in Michigan, she receives criticism from progressives and the grassroots community for opposing gig workers’ right to organize, declining to endorse bold healthcare and climate action policies like Medicare-for-All, being heavily funded by AIPAC even before the breakout of the Israel-Gaza conflict, supporting the MAGA crypto bills, and recently refusing to object to the influence of special interest dark money in the political process.
Another thing yet to be decided is who else enters this race in an environment where Democrats are nervous about the chances of a divisive party primary. Who else could step in? It could be Attorney General Dana Nessel (who is considering either a gubernatorial or senatorial run), or Lt. Governor Garlin Gilchrist—an expert on IT and racial justice policies, and a charismatic and well-liked Democrat amongst both Michigan progressives and traditional base supporters. Even though he is being outspent and out-organized in the governor’s race by the national sensation of Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson.
Such changes and new entries would also be consequential to the Senate race dynamics in Michigan as well.
Minnesota: The Minnesota Senate race already features the calling signs of determining who dominates the messaging of the Democratic Party more in 2026: the so-called progressives or moderates.
Congresswoman Angie Craig features an impressive electoral resume, knowledge of agricultural issues, advocacy on LGBTQ issues as a lesbian mother, and is a member of the ever-needed Monopoly Busters Caucus. At the same time, she left the Congressional Progressive Caucus shortly after joining Congress, even though she ran with the caucus’s support.
Furthermore, she has noticeably shifted in her voting record, word is, to “match” with the makeup of her suburban congressional district; voting to advance certain GOP bills such as the nonprofit killer proposal supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whipping support for Trump’s cryptocurrency bills, and raking in cash from AIPAC. Also, like Congresswoman Stevens, Congresswoman Craig has received campaign contributions from Elon Musk’s SpaceX. And, she commandeered a medical PAC for St. Jude Hospital which donated to a significant number of Republicans over the years. These are issues that are likely to be brought up in the Senate primary by Minnesota progressives.
As for Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, she comes from the Wellstone legacy, volunteering in his Wellstone Action organization for years (which funny trivia, she sort of helped recruit and support Tim Walz in his bid for Congress in 2006). As a state lawmaker and now as Lt. Governor, her pet causes included the expansion of public education funding, prioritizing childcare issues, protecting and strengthening our safety net programs, helping to pass paid leave and universal school meals, reigning in the unprecedented influence of corporate money in politics, and advancing reproductive rights. If elected, she would be Minnesota’s first ever Native American US Senator. Not only that, she does have impressive working class credentials as a mom who needed Food Stamps and relied on Section 8 housing to stay afloat when she was young.
Illinois: Whoever wins the Illinois Democratic primary will likely be the next Senator for the state, succeeding the one and only Dick Durbin. The question is who.
Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi will have plenty to tout as one of the biggest oversight investigators of Trump during his entire tenure in Congress, leading on a multitude of issues, including to combat the influence of the Chinese Communist Party. But what will likely be raised by critics are personal fundraising ties to Hindu nationalists, Big Tech, corporate special interests, and the Netanyahu lobby. Can Congressman Krishnamoorthi win over progressives? We shall see.
Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton in her time as a state lawmaker and as Governor JB Pritzker’s partner-in-crime has been defined by leading efforts on environmental (watershed) conservation, affordable housing, criminal justice reform, youth rehabilitation, and gun safety. Her abundance of institutional support will propel her as another major candidate in this race. However, she will have to overcome concerns that Governor Pritzker’s immense personal wealth may tilt the outcome of the Senate primary in her favor.
Congresswoman Robin Kelly also is a fascinating candidate taking mainly progressive positions on universal healthcare, bold climate action, and expanding college opportunities for students. However, up to this point, she has been lagging in the polls against the two well-known, and vastly better-funded candidates.
New Hampshire: Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas has done something most Democrats in open seats haven’t been able to do: consolidate his party behind him, likely to face former Massachusetts Senator and Trump’s New Zealand Ambassador Scott Brown who underwent a highly under noted transformation from Moderate to MAGA since coming onto the political scene in 2010.
Maine: Many people are wondering if Governor Janet Mills will run, but at the age of 78, some are considering whether a younger candidate is better fit for the moment to take on Senator Susan Collins. That’s where a few activists plan to needle former State Senator Chloe Maxmin, a voracious organizer in Rural America, to run on her bold platform of investing in and fighting for working families.
North Carolina: Democrats won a needed recruitment boost with Governor Roy Cooper’s entrance into the open Senate race there. As to why I am so excited about Roy Cooper’s bid, see my post last year on why I initially supported him to be Kamala Harris’s VP running mate.
Georgia: Senator Jon Ossoff continues his anti-government corruption campaign while a crowded GOP Senate primary starts to form with two MAGA Congressmen and an unsuccessful Tennessee football coach recruited by Governor Brian Kemp.
Iowa: State Rep., agrarian antitrust populist, and minor league baseball player JD Scholten—not to mention, he is also the man who almost beat the infamous Steve King in 2018, and was just reelected last November in a Trump-won district—so far leads the pack as the favorite to take on Senator Joni Ernst (should she run for reelection). He, however, still faces a primary challenge from the establishment-backed Zach Wahls and random outsider candidate Nathan Sage.
Iowans still await State Rep. and Paralympian Josh Turek’s decision to run, although some local voices say he should wait for the 2028 seat so prairie populists and farm-labor coalition types can unite behind Scholten for 2026.
Ohio: Free trade skeptic and pro-labor Senator Sherrod Brown is the man we’re all waiting for. Namely, he has just declared that he will be running against Jon Husted, one of the big players in the FirstEnergy Scandal (a true choir boy, right?). Brown came up just short last November, losing by less than 4 points in a state Trump won by 11.
And for those keeping tabs, former State Senator and Mahoning County Judge Joe Schiavoni bowed out of contention for the Senate contest in 2026.
Texas: Former Congressman Colin Allred is running again, though a lingering question will be whether Democrats want to run him again next November after losing by almost 9 points to one of the more unpopular figures in the state: Ted Cruz. Furthermore, he saw support erode for Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley compared to 2018, or even 2020, and many observers have questioned his statewide campaign strategy in hindsight. That’s why in this recent redistricting fight, more people are leaning their hopes on flipping the seat to State Rep. James Talarico, a Christian pastor and active state lawmaker. If someone can flip Texas blue, it could be this guy.
Florida: Florida will be an uphill climb for any Democrat, especially against incumbent GOP Senator Ashley Moody. With former Labor official Jose Javier Rodriguez bowing out, no prominent candidates have considered their decision to run for the seat. Some names being floated as a result of his decision though include State Senator Carlos Guillermo Smith and immigration advocate Thomas Kennedy.
Alaska: The key to potentially flipping Alaska’s Senate seat and unseating Dan Sullivan from the backlash of the Big Beautiful Bill and Putin’s visit to the state, among various other issues, may rest on the decision making of former Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola, a champion for Native Americans, women, and fisheries.
Kansas: Democrats should definitely try to field a formidable candidate for Kansas’s Senate seat in a state that has shifted away from Republicans in the Trump era, elected a Democratic Governor twice, codified reproductive rights, and nearly rejected Kris Kobach for Attorney General in 2022.
Montana: A formidable Democrat like Jon Tester (unfortunately, he announced he is not interested in running), Whitney Williams, or Brian Schweitzer may put Montana back on the map. Key word: may.
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham faces a potentially competitive primary from the co-author of Project 2025, Mr. Paul Dans. That could leave a slight opening for Democrats to take advantage of, including “winning” just by diverting money and resources away from the true bellwethers. Keep an eye on State Rep. Justin Bamberg.
Colorado & Massachusetts: Gerontocracy concerns may invite primary challenges to either Senators John Hickenlooper or Ed Markey (if they do intend to seek reelection). So far, none have emerged, but some names being floated around respectively in those races include former CO Speaker Crisanta Duran, pro-Abundance MA Congressman (and former Republican) Jake Auchincloss, and MA Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley. Former State Rep. Joe Salazar has bowed out of contention in Colorado.
Nebraska: Two words: Dan Osborn. Watch this space.
House:
I may try to keep track of key House races later in time, but there are too many to count for the time being. You can check out the most recent news though using websites like OurCampaigns.com, The Down-Ballot, Politico, The Hill, Roll Call, and Axios. Those are the best places to find news on almost every House race and redistricting story imaginable.
Plus, check out my recruitment push in tougher congressional districts across the country.
Governor:
Nevada: Another recruitment win for Democrats in the form of Attorney General Aaron Ford running against arguably the most vulnerable Republican Governor in the country, Joe Lombardo.
Georgia: Looks like a competitive Democratic primary is set up between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former Labor Commissioner Mike Thurmond. Likewise in the GOP primary.
Iowa: Iowa moved from Solid Republican to Lean Republican with the entrance of Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand into the race-who won reelection in 2022 by only 3,000 votes despite the state’s political evolution. Not saying it’s easy, but keep your eyes on him. GOP primary is wide open.
Ohio: Vivek Ramaswamy remains the favorite to succeed Mike DeWine, so can Democrats stop him? We shall see. Only Dr. Amy Acton, who managed Governor DeWine’s COVID health response in 2020, is running against the anointed GOP nominee. Congressman Tim Ryan has not decided on a gubernatorial bid just yet.
Wisconsin & Michigan: So far, the competition in Michigan is between Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Lt. Governor Garlin Gilchrist, while Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez announced her bid to succeed her boss Tony Evers in Wisconsin.
New York: The gubernatorial primary between Kathy Hochul and Antonio Delgado is getting nasty, especially over whether Delgado’s light public schedule is a result of Hochul’s vengeance tactics, from decreasing his staff, to even seizing his own cell phone and email account.
But for Hochul, she has bigger issues of her own, from electability concerns, to historically conservative positions on both economics and cultural issues, bad personnel decisions, and yes, the infamous Hochulmander flop that gave Republicans control of the House in 2022 in the first place.
New Hampshire & Vermont: Names being floated amongst progressive factions and groups to take on the GOP incumbent governors there include Andru Volinsky and David Zuckerman respectively.
State Legislatures:
No, I am not going to highlight every single state legislative race in the country. CNalysis can do that for 2026 instead. What I will say is Democrats do have a target list for legislatures in the wake of the redistricting wars (as they also do with US House seats). Hopefully, they will take advantage of those lists.
With that, see how you can be involved in changing the system to elect more populists and working class candidates all across the country in 2026. Email me if you have any suggestions, tips, or recommendations to offer in future blog editions.
A true tour de force of political knowledge, Mike!